I don’t know about you, but on the morning of Nov. 8, I’m going to put together the day’s headlines at johncombest.com, turn off my phone, and take a nap. So I put together next Wednesday’s blog post in advance. Read it now or read it later — it’s your call.
Here are five lessons we learned from Election 2006:
5.) Wherever you go, YouTube is there. Credit Jim Talent and Claire McCaskill for not making any big mistakes within sight of video cameras. Other U.S. Senate candidates — namely George Allen and Conrad Burns — were not so lucky. Thanks to YouTube, Missouri politicos saw good actors and bad actors and angry thespians re-enacting the running of the bulls (Springfield as Pamplona — who woulda thunk it?!?) Google’s purchase of YouTube means ubiquity for the video site, and an invitation for pros and amateurs to catch their least favorite candidates in the most unflattering of lights.
4.) Vote fraud isn’t dead, but it’s dying. To date, the positive contribution Gov. Matt Blunt has made to ethics in Missouri government is the appointment of real Republicans to the St. Louis City Election Board. Without them, it’s doubtful that groups like this would have been caught doing things like this. Republican legislators will still pass a photo ID bill next year, for obvious reasons. But rank-and-file Republicans should just be happy that Scott Leiendecker, and cooperative Dems at the Election Board, have made fighting fraud a top priority.
3.) Love for sale — black Dems stop giving it up for free. Longtime Alderman Freeman Bosley, Sr., gained attention in September for sending a letter to the supporters of Amendment 2, warning them that not enough black political leaders were receiving their rightful tribute. Bosley’s not-so-veiled threat was surprising not for its content, but for the fact that it was made publicly. With Jay Nixon at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2008, we can expect more black leaders to publicly assert their independence from the Democratic Party and become political free agents. The market will no doubt be flooded with some sketchy “consultants”, but with Republican leaders willing to put more money in the streets, expect the going rate for a clergy or ward endorsement to increase dramatically. Republicans still won’t crack 20% of the black vote, but Dems will find organizing black voters to be more difficult and much more expensive than in years past.
2.) Susan Montee is a problem. Forget Robin Carnahan — Susan Montee is the Dems’ new golden child. Like Carnahan, Montee has a statewide office to use to increase her name ID and resume for future campaigns. Unlike Carnahan, Montee will be able to trot out a husband and kids — the missing piece of the puzzle in Carnahan’s campaign collage. Montee is a certified varsity starter in a party full of lifelong B-teamers, and she’s one of very few Dems who can mount a legitimate challenge to Kenny Hulshof should Kit Bond’s U.S. Senate seat open up in 2010.
1.) Sorry, Michael J. — all politics is still local. A year ago, it looked like Claire McCaskill had an easy task — all she had to do was tie her opponent to an unpopular president, one whom Jim Talent voted with — say it with me — 94% of the time. Moreover, Talent opposed embryonic stem cell research, which was favored by an overwhelming majority of Missourians (remember those days?). So what happened? The short answer is that a majority of voters never bought the argument that Jim Talent was part of the problem in Washington. McCaskill hit on popular notes of national discontent — the war in Iraq, “fairness” in health care, and gas prices (back when they were astronomical). But McCaskill unwisely ignored her base — who are predisposed to buying into class-based arguments — in favor of rural voters, most of whom have been bombarded with Republican memes of “guns, God, and gays” for the last decade. McCaskill’s slogan — “It’s time for a Senator on our side” was cute, but most Missourians felt like Jim Talent never left their side in the first place. That sentiment — along with the Dems’ disorganization and the Republicans’ turnout machine — is responsible for Missourians returning Jim Talent back to the U.S. Senate.
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